PALO ALTO, California — November 3, 2008. YouGov/Polimetrix, a leader in online polling in the US, today released its predictions for tomorrow's presidential and Senate elections.
Results are based on surveys conducted between October 18th and November 1st. This release reports the results of 31,148 interviews conducted in all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia. The samples are selected from YouGov/Polimetrix's PollingPoint panel and are matched to a sampling frame of registered voters. The sampling error for a sample of size 400 is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 7%. This includes normal sampling error from the frame plus an adjustment for matching error.
Based on the results, it is projected that Barack Obama would receive 353 electoral votes, whereas John McCain would receive 185 electoral votes.
A PDF version of the results is available here.
Table 1: Presidential Election 2008 Vote Intention
Registered voters interviewed between October 18 and November 1, 2008
| State |
Sample Size |
Barack Obama |
John McCain |
Other |
Not Sure |
| Alabama |
452 |
39% |
57% |
2% |
2% |
| Alaska |
358 |
38% |
55% |
2% |
5% |
| Arizona |
682 |
46% |
50% |
3% |
0% |
| Arkansas |
491 |
41% |
53% |
2% |
4% |
| California |
999 |
55% |
40% |
4% |
1% |
| Colorado |
685 |
55% |
40% |
2% |
2% |
| Connecticut |
704 |
58% |
37% |
2% |
3% |
| Delaware |
346 |
59% |
37% |
1% |
3% |
| District of Columbia |
228 |
81% |
15% |
2% |
3% |
| Florida |
1001 |
49% |
47% |
2% |
1% |
| Georgia |
910 |
47% |
50% |
2% |
2% |
| Hawaii |
337 |
56% |
34% |
5% |
5% |
| Idaho |
372 |
36% |
59% |
2% |
3% |
| Illinois |
783 |
58% |
39% |
2% |
1% |
| Indiana |
789 |
45% |
53% |
1% |
1% |
| Iowa |
795 |
52% |
41% |
2% |
4% |
| Kansas |
499 |
41% |
52% |
2% |
4% |
| Kentucky |
486 |
41% |
53% |
2% |
4% |
| Louisiana |
436 |
45% |
52% |
1% |
3% |
| Maine |
486 |
51% |
42% |
2% |
4% |
| Maryland |
475 |
60% |
35% |
4% |
1% |
| Massachusetts |
705 |
57% |
39% |
2% |
2% |
| Michigan |
973 |
55% |
42% |
2% |
1% |
| Minnesota |
699 |
51% |
45% |
2% |
2% |
| Mississippi |
417 |
42% |
55% |
1% |
2% |
| Missouri |
684 |
47% |
49% |
2% |
1% |
| Montana |
368 |
44% |
54% |
2% |
1% |
| Nebraska |
407 |
38% |
57% |
2% |
3% |
| Nevada |
494 |
51% |
46% |
2% |
0% |
| New Hampshire |
516 |
54% |
40% |
2% |
3% |
| New Jersey |
777 |
55% |
40% |
1% |
3% |
| New Mexico |
457 |
53% |
43% |
2% |
3% |
| New York |
988 |
58% |
38% |
3% |
1% |
| North Carolina |
955 |
51% |
47% |
1% |
1% |
| North Dakota |
271 |
43% |
50% |
3% |
4% |
| Ohio |
990 |
51% |
45% |
3% |
2% |
| Oklahoma |
491 |
39% |
58% |
1% |
1% |
| Oregon |
698 |
54% |
43% |
2% |
1% |
| Pennsylvania |
1009 |
51% |
44% |
4% |
1% |
| Rhode Island |
365 |
58% |
37% |
3% |
2% |
| South Carolina |
728 |
44% |
52% |
0% |
4% |
| South Dakota |
352 |
43% |
52% |
2% |
4% |
| Tennessee |
653 |
44% |
53% |
2% |
2% |
| Texas |
972 |
43% |
54% |
3% |
1% |
| Utah |
395 |
34% |
61% |
3% |
2% |
| Vermont |
275 |
62% |
32% |
2% |
4% |
| Virginia |
772 |
52% |
45% |
2% |
1% |
| Washington |
797 |
53% |
43% |
3% |
1% |
| West Virginia |
404 |
43% |
52% |
3% |
3% |
| Wisconsin |
976 |
53% |
41% |
1% |
4% |
| Wyoming |
246 |
29% |
67% |
1% |
2% |
| National Popular Vote |
31,148 |
51% |
45% |
2% |
2% |
Table 2: Senate Election 2008 Vote Intention
Registered voters interviewed between October 18 and November 1, 2008
Alabama (n=452)
Figures (D) 26%
Sessions (R) 54%
Alaska (n=358)
Begich (D) 44%
Stevens (R) 42%
Arkansas (n=491)
Pryor (D) 52%
Kennedy (G) 19%
Colorado (n=685)
Udall (D) 51%
Schaffer (R) 36%
Delaware (n=346)
Biden (D) 58%
O'Donnell (R) 31%
Georgia (n=910)
Martin (D) 37%
Chambliss (R) 43%
Idaho (n=372)
LaRocco (D) 31%
Risch (R) 56%
Illinois (n=783)
Durbin (D) 54%
Sauerberg (R) 31%
Iowa (n=795)
Harkin (D) 56%
Reed (R) 36%
Kansas (n=499)
Slattery (D) 32%
Roberts (R) 56%
Kentucky (n=486)
Lunsford (D) 42%
McConnell (R) 49%
Louisiana (n=436)
Landrieu (D) 52%
Kennedy (R) 39%
Maine (n=486)
Allen (D) 35%
Collins (R) 55%
Massachusetts (n=705)
Kerry (D) 55%
Beatty (R) 32%
Michigan (n=973)
Levin (D) 52%
Hoogendyk (R) 29%
Minnesota (n=699)
Franken (D) 40%
Coleman (R) 39%
Mississippi (n=417)
Fleming (D) 28%
Cochran (R) 56%
Mississippi B (n=417)
Musgrove (D) 40%
Wicker (R) 48%
|
Montana (n=368)
Baucus (D) 60%
Kelleher (R) 32%
Nebraska (n=407)
Kleeb (D) 34%
Johanns (R) 53%
New Hampshire (n=516)
Shaheen (D) 49%
Sununu (R) 41%
New Jersey (n=777)
Lautenberg (D) 48%
Zimmer (R) 34%
New Mexico (n=457)
Udall (D) 54%
Pearce (R) 33%
North Carolina (n=955)
Hagan (D) 48%
Dole (R) 42%
Oklahoma (n=491)
Rice (D) 39%
Inhofe (R) 50%
Oregon (n=698)
Merkley (D) 44%
Smith (R) 43%
Rhode Island (n=365)
Reed (D) 64%
Tingle (R) 25%
South Carolina (n=728)
Conley (D) 31%
Graham (R) 47%
South Dakota (n=352)
Johnson (D) 60%
Dykstra (R) 35%
Tennessee (n=653)
Tuke (D) 30%
Alexander (R) 53%
Texas (n=972)
Noriega (D) 35%
Cornyn (R) 47%
Virginia (n=772)
Warner (D) 58%
Gilmore (R) 33%
West Virginia (n=404)
Rockefeller (D) 55%
Wolfe (R) 37%
Wyoming (n=246)
Rothfuss (D) 25%
Enzi (R) 68%
Wyoming B (n=246)
Carter (D) 29%
Barrasso (R) 63%
|
