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McDonnell Leads Deeds by 13% in YouGov’s Virginia Poll

PALO ALTO, California — October 31, 2009. YouGov, the leading global online polling organization, finds that Republican Bob McDonnell holds a commanding 13% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the 2009 Virginia Governor’s race. YouGov polled 742 likely voters between October 27 and 30, 2009. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

 

If the election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?
Bob McDonnell – Republican	53%
Creigh Deeds – Democrat	40%
Not sure	7%

 

This would represent a substantial reversal for Democrats who won a string of hard-fought races for Governor, Senator, and President in Virginia in the past few years. In the 2005 Governor’s race, current incumbent Tim Kaine defeated Jerry Kilgore by a 52% to 46% margin. In the 2006 U.S. Senate race, Jim Webb defeated George Allen by less than a point. In the 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a 53% to 46% margin. McDonnell manages to hold onto 93% of the McCain voters, while Deeds keeps just 78% of the Obama voters.

 

	2008 Presidential Vote
	Obama	McCain
Bob McDonnell	12%	93%
Creigh Deeds	78%	3%
Not sure	9%	4%

 

The economy was by far the most frequently mentioned issue on the mind of Virginia voters. Each respondent was allowed to pick up to three issues, and 84% chose jobs and the economy. 50% mentioned health care, 48% state government spending, 42% education, and 41% transportation. McDonnell does best among voters concerned with state government spending, while Deeds does wins those concerned with health care and education.

 

In other races, Republican Bill Bolling holds a 49% to 41% lead over Democrat Jody Wagner in the race for Lieutenant Governor, while Republican Ken Cuccinelli holds a 51% to 38% lead over Democrat Steve Shannon in the race for Attorney General.

Methodology

Interviews were conducted online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the Virginia registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).

About YouGov

YouGov Polimetrix is the North American subsidiary of YouGov PLC, which conducts polls around the world using its online panels.

Contact

For additional information, contact Douglas Rivers, CEO of YouGov Polimetrix at (650) 462-8000 or email doug@yougov.com.

 

 

A PDF version of this story is available here. Toplines and crosstabs are also available.