News

Terror in the Air

PALO ALTO, California — In the wake of the attempted Christmas Day bombing of Northwest flight 253, Americans

have become more worried about the threat of terrorism than they have been at any time in the past year. In the new Economist/YouGov Poll 70% say another terrorist attack against the United States is at least somewhat likely this year, with nearly a third saying it’s very likely.   The number putting the probability of another attack at better than 50% has more than doubled since April, though concern had begun to edge up in late September.  The most worried are senior citizens and Republicans; 42% of those 65 and older and 50% of Republicans believe an attack is very likely.

 

So far, the post-Christmas implementation of new security rules for air travel, especially those for air travel into the United States, haven’t assuaged those concerns.  76% believe there will be more attempts like the one that occurred on Christmas Day in the near future. 

Nearly half the public (48%) expects that the new rules (which have already been loosened on many flights) will make no difference in air safety.  Fewer than one in four thinks they will make flying safer. 

Overall, do you think the air travel security measures that have been implemented since Christmas will make flying safer or not?

That doesn’t mean that the public (whether they fly a lot or not) opposes new safety requirements.  In fact, most air travel safety requirements get a high level of support from the public.  82% favor multiple ID checks; 64% support allowing only one carryon; 71% favor removing their shoes to go through airport security; 53% favor the restrictions on carrying liquids on the flights. 

 

But there is far less support for two new measures – those with an opinion are closely divided on a requirement that passengers remain seated for the last hour of a flight, and the there is nearly two to one opposition to passengers not having personal items (laptops, blankets, etc.) in their laps the last hour of a flight. 

 

Americans are willing to implement one additional security procedure which many privacy advocates have criticized – the full-body scan of passengers, although many prefer that its use be limited to only some passengers.  47% say all passengers should be screened.  33% would limit full-body scan use only to those passengers who security screeners think might pose a threat.  Only 9% completely oppose the full-body scan.

 

Some airports are now using full-body scanner machines that produce a detailed picture of travelers and items that are hidden on their bodies. It might have detected the explosives that were meant to be ignited on the Christmas Day Northwest flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. But it also produces naked images of travelers and many privacy advocates have objected to them. The scanners would not detect items within a person’s body.

What is your opinion of the use of full-body scanners at airports?   *(Asked if respondent has heard or read about plot)

Those under 30 are the least likely to favor the use of the full-body scanner, but there is little difference between Republicans and Democrats.  There is also little difference between liberals and conservatives: 41% of liberals and 42% of conservatives favor using it on all travelers.

 

The flying public (eight in ten Americans say they do fly, at least occasionally) is more skeptical about improved safety on airplanes, and more dubious about the new restrictions.  The more people fly, the more negative they are.  Self-reported frequent fliers are more opposed to restrictions.  23% of them reported that the security for their last flight was “too tight,” something said by only 10% of occasional travelers. (Among all fliers, 38% thought security was “not tight enough,” something particularly an issue for older travelers, female travelers, conservatives and Republicans.)

 

68% of frequent travelers think the new security rules won’t help.  Frequent travelers particularly object to in-flight limits on what travelers can do in the last hour of a flight.  Americans who don’t fly – and those who fly occasionally -- are more supportive of those restrictions, which affect them less or not at all.  In general, air travelers don’t object to taking off their shoes at security checkpoints, limiting carry-on and liquids aboard a plane, or having their IDs checked multiple times.   And 59% of frequent travelers most travelers don’t object to full-body scans -- for all passengers.

 

It’s probably due more to the economy than to new air security measures, but 30% of travelers plan to fly less in 2010.  Only 12% will fly more.  Those percentages are closely related to a person’s financial situation.

 

 

The Obama Administration and Air Safety

 

While Americans give the airlines only middling marks on following government standards for air safety and security (45% rate them as doing a good job; 40% say they are doing only a fair job -- or a poor one), the government comes in for more criticism.  52% say the U.S. government is doing only a fair job or a poor one when it comes to setting those security standards for air travel. 

In the public’s mind, one significant failure was in preventing the Christmas Day bombing attempt.  More than two-thirds of the public believes that the government had enough information about the activities of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to have prevented the attempt.  Just 10% said the government did not.
Do you think American intelligence agencies had enough information about the activities of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to have prevented him from attempting to destroy the Northwest flight from Amsterdam on Christmas Day? *(Asked if respondent has heard or read about plot)
Americans don’t feel safer from terrorism with Barack Obama in the White House.  Only 23% say the policies of the Obama Administration have made the country safer, while a third say they have made the country less safe.  43% see no change.  Those results have been relatively stable in the last few months.    What has changed is the concern about what happens next.  Just about half expect the threat of terrorism to increase in the next year, an increase first noted in polling the weekend immediately after the Christmas Day attempt.  And Americans are more likely to disapprove than approve of President Barack Obama’s handling of terrorism.  In this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll, only 42% approve, while 49% disapprove.    The President’s overall approval rating remains low.   This week is it only 45%, matching last week’s all-time low in Economist/YouGov Polls.  46% disapprove.
Obama Approval "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?"
And it isn’t just fear of terrorism that may be affecting the low ratings.  Only 41% approve of the way the President is handling health care reform, matching his previous lowest rating.  53% disapprove.
President Obama's Performance on Health Care "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling healthcare?"
And a clear majority says they oppose what they know about the proposals now under discussion in Congress.  By a margin of 56% to 44%, one of the largest margins ever, Americans don’t like what they know.  Republicans, as they have in previous polls, almost unanimously oppose the measures.  But so do 23% of Democrats and 60% of independents.   40% of independents say they strongly oppose the measures.
Support for Health Reform "Overall, given what you know about them, do you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama Administration?"
Yet 22% in this week’s poll say that health care is the country’s most important issue –the highest percentage ever saying that in the last year.   Part of the problem that President Obama faces with American opinion is that a growing percentage of the public doesn’t trust what he says.  55% now say President Obama says what he thinks people want to hear, the highest percentage saying this since he became President.   Just 45% think he says what he really believes.
President Obama's Sincerity "Do you think Barack Obama..."

 

 

The Year Ahead

 

2009 was a bad year for the world and for most Americans, as reported in last week’s Economist/YouGov Poll.  This year might be better – for both.

 

Despite fears about increased terrorism, 42% report being optimistic about the year ahead for the world; less than a third are pessimistic. And 50% are optimistic about the year ahead for themselves and their families, with only a quarter pessimistic about that. 

What's your feeling about the year ahead? Generally speaking, are you optimistic or pessimistic about what kind of year 2010 will be...

Optimism decreases with age:  48% of those under 30 are optimistic about the state of the world in the new year, compared with only 34% of those 65 and older.   45% of senior citizens are pessimistic, compared with just 20% of those under 30.

 

The young are more hopeful about their own lives, too.  52% of them are optimistic about the next year, and just 15% are pessimistic.  For those 65 and older, 41% are optimistic, 37% are pessimistic. 

 

But optimism has its limits.  As for right now, more say the economy is getting worse (38%) than think it is getting better (26%).   Looking ahead one year, just about as many think the economy will get worse as think it will get better.

 

There is some economic hopefulness, though it is muted.  While 46% say home prices in their area have dropped in the last year, only 23% think the decline in prices will continue.  More than a third expect home prices will go up this year.  Looking ahead a decade, 36% say Americans will be financially better off in 10 years.  But 30% still see a negative economic future for most Americans. 

Do you think that Americans will be better off financially in ten years than they are today?

Interested in more details about the poll?  We have a topline summary and complete tabs available now.

Methodology

These results are from a weekly YouGov public opinion poll conducted for The Economist. The poll surveyed 1,000 respondents and was fielded from January 2-5, 2010. Results from interviews conducted online by members of YouGov’s PollingPoint panel are representative of the U.S. adult population. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.8%.